Should Britain leave the EU?

I think we should. Basically my perception is that the leave campaign has highlighted one very important problem: that EU officials are unelected and therefore have the opportunity to be dictatorial. There are other more specific problems too such as way the EU has a common currency but doesn't have common fiscal law, or free movement of people but insufficient cooperation of intelligence services and such. In any case, it's all very compelling to me. Meanwhile, the stay campaign is mostly just trying to scare people into the 'better the devil you know' (than the one you don't) mentality, while also making outlandish claims such as 'trade with the EU will stop' (which to me it seems it clearly won't) or badly worded comments such as 'We're a world leader and therefore we need Europe' (to lead us?).

Betting odds seem to indicate a larger payout if we stay, which suggests more people are betting that we will leave. Or could this just mean that risk-takers (betters) would take the risk of leaving? Surely not, since they are trying to predict the masses' decision, not specifying their own preference. (Link - be careful not to misread the pie chart, which is *not* indicating a stay/leave ratio.) [EDIT: actually I suppose it's difficult to say whether betting odds are a genuine indicator of likelihood of outcome, since the current odds, and rounding thereof, always affect the likelihood of future bets.]

Finally, in this article, the first graph shows a 'poll of polls' indicating figures close to 50-50 but nearly always slightly in favour of staying. In contrast, the vote at the bottom of the article has a resounding outcome of 72% wanting to leave. I'm inclined to think there's some kind of statistical flaw in the 'poll of polls', but then, I found the article simply by Googling 'Brexit predictions' and I don't know what the Telegraph's usual political bias is.

Thoughts?

I disagree on Europe. It seems to me that most studies put out by people or bodies that I trust and respect are in favour of staying. In the leave camp we have Farage, Gove, Boris Johnson et al. Their argument seems to be predicated on the assumption that we will instantaneously be able to re-negotiate 30 years of trade deals in such a way that we will retain all the benefits and lose all the liabilities.

In my own job (medical devices) it's very nice to be able to work with harmonised standards across Europe and if we were no longer part of that, they would inevitably drift apart due to favouring national interests.

Great Britain is not what it once was, and probably never will be again. I believe that if we pursue an isolationist strategy we will end up as little better than a historical theme park. If we had to throw our lot in with someone it had better be the 'Europeans' - their common values are best aligned to our own in my experience. The US 'special relationship' is nothing of the kind and only remains for as long as America deems it convenient.

Finally the Telegraph is the homeplace of old-school conservative right-wing thinking. I respect their viewpoints but they are not mine.

This puts me in the uncomfortable position of agreeing with David Cameron.

I misread the betting odds. It seems betters think staying is more likely. This becomes obvious if you click on a 'stay' bet and a 'leave' bet and review the potential total returns on the bet, which are greater for a 'leave' bet implying they expect less likelihood of having to pay it. But that still begs the question of whether betting odds really reflect people's opinion of the likelihood of outcome, rather than the proportions of bets each way which may depend on bets made so far, personal sentiments, rounding errors and such.

While I can't resist reading an article or two every day to see what the current sentiments are, I am coming round to thinking I have other things I'd rather spend my time on

Is Trump really racist, or only nationalist? For example, is there any evidence that he would disadvantage black people or any other race if they legitimately live in the US?

And misogynist? I wasn't even aware of such a criticism of Trump.

Yes, nationalism and racism are two different things, and also outcome isn't the same as intention - even if nationalism results in racism flourishing, that doesn't mean the nationalist intended racism to flourish.

As for Trump and women, his insults are funny and usually directed at specific people who might have deserved it, and the article I found smacked of barrel-scraping and overreaction.

My 32 GB memory set has just arrived - I'll install it now and see if it works, and hopefully the upgrade from 8 GB will help my virtual orchestra software not to crash

[EDIT]
Installed and seems to work, except Windows 7 Home Premium only allows me to use 16 GB of it. Perhaps I should consider Windows 10 after all, as it lifts that limit. Honestly the only thing holding me back is that I prefer how Windows 7 looks

I have absolutely loved this election cycle and I hope Trump wins.

Why? Because it has absolutely highlighted to me how much of a liberal "Hillary election machine" the media is. It's non-stop propaganda.

Trump is an asshole. But he's the first asshole in decades who is too rich to be bought.

Obama was a perfect example. Charming guy. Ran on a platform of change. He won a freaking advertising award for that. And what did he change? Almost nothing.

Basically, the USA government has become a system where the true people in power pay for candidates to get elected, so that they owe the corporations when they get in. Democrats and Republicans are the exact same party. They both bailed out Wall Street. They both refused to prosecute anyone on Wall Street. They talk about emotional, hot-button issues to distract everyone but they have no ACTUAL plans of changing those issues. Why give away an issue guaranteed to polarize your voting base every year and get you re-elected?

And those people who are pulling the strings? They're not subjected to elections. They don't cease being powerful every 4 years. They lobby, gain power, and have more power the next time around.

The reason Trump is so damn popular is because of the non-stop media onslaught against him. The media is so damn self-serving and under-handed they don't even realize they've managed to make A BILLIONAIRE look like the underdog. Every day, it's a new article of "Here's why he won't win." then when he does win something, it's "Here's why that win doesn't matter." You don't have to be a genius to pick up on that pattern.

And if you truly hate the powers that be, it stands to reason you're going to vote for the person that the-powers-that-be are afraid of and constantly attacking. A vote for Trump is the best chance we've had in my lifetime to give a giant middle-finger to our entire government. It's saying "We hate you so much, we'd vote for a crazy person over four more years of your snake-tongued crap."

And if he wins? Politics will have forever changed. All a sudden, a foreigner-with-money will be a plausible threat to all of those political incumbents. And the more threats there are, the more chances politicians will actually start listening to us for a change.

Like this issue?

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Not my joke - it came up at the meal after our orchestra day, but unsurprisingly the Internet got there first

Yip! The richer, the more they want to be bought. The richer, the more they want to escape to tax havens.

Disclaimer: Canadian.

I desperately want him to win the GOP nomination. His chances are looking pretty grim now. I don't think it's possible for him to win a general election, but the more damage he does to the Republican party the better.

Not so sure about that. When you look at the numbers, he's pretty much the nominee at this point. The press would have you believe otherwise (because it's in their best interest).

Also when you look at the numbers for the general election, we're in the clear. There's no way Trump will be able to win the general.

Now go out and vote. Your vote makes a difference!

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No, a pleasant ... no wait, that doesn't work.

I'm sure there's some political analogy that can be made with that half-full pint.

Also, this thread now takes a perceptible time to load and render on my comp. Keep going people we will blow Leverton's server before long.

For me, this is page 5. I know, I'm a traitor.

i'm not paging at all. Working fine ^^